Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-17 08:30Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's preliminary performance report for the first half of the year significantly exceeded expectations, with sales and profit surpassing Morgan Stanley's estimates by 8% and 20% respectively [1][2]. Performance Summary - Sales reached 13.7 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 200% [3]. - Adjusted net profit soared by 375% to 4.375 billion RMB [3]. - Gross margin improved to 70.9%, up by 6.8 percentage points [3]. - Operating profit margin increased to 41.1%, a substantial rise of 16.7 percentage points [3]. - Sales and management expense ratio decreased to 29.8%, down by 9.9 percentage points [3]. Regional Performance - Greater China saw a growth of approximately 125% [4]. - North America experienced a staggering growth of about 1400% [4]. - Other Asia-Pacific regions grew by around 200% [4]. - Europe and other markets increased by approximately 750% [4]. Future Projections - Morgan Stanley raised sales forecasts for 2025-2027 by 19%, 22%, and 23% respectively, and net profit forecasts by 32-34% [6]. - Expected sales growth for 2025 is projected at 140%, with net profit growth at 210% [6]. - The target price for Pop Mart was increased from 302 HKD to 365 HKD, indicating a potential for further upside [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - The implied P/E ratio for 2025 is adjusted to 46, with a target P/E for 2026 at 32 [10]. - The gross margin forecast for 2025-2027 is raised to 71.5%, 72.5%, and 73.0% respectively [8]. - The company’s net profit margin is estimated to reach 32%, exceeding previous expectations by about 4 percentage points [6]. Stock Price Outlook - Short-term stock price is expected to reach new highs, followed by potential profit-taking by momentum investors [9]. - Sales growth is anticipated to slow down to 150-160% in Q3 due to higher base effects in the Asia-Pacific and Chinese markets [9]. - Morgan Stanley views the current adjustment window as a good opportunity for long-term investors to increase their positions, given the company's substantial global market potential [9][11].