Market Overview - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with the Wenhua Commodity Index closing up by 0.5%, surpassing the technical resistance zone around 162, suggesting traders should focus on the new resistance level around 163 [2] Commodity Performance - Polysilicon continues its strong performance, driven by supply tightening expectations, reaching a record high with a 6.42% increase [4] - Lithium carbonate also saw a rise of 2.32% due to a mining company's announcement of production halts [4] - In contrast, chemical products showed weakness, influenced by a drop in international oil prices and comments from Trump regarding oil prices [4] Specific Commodity Insights - Industrial silicon is facing potential upward resistance after reaching a critical pressure zone between 8620-8850, indicating a possible phase of declining upward momentum [6] - The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak due to a cooling off in the component market and the impact of "anti-involution" policies targeting the photovoltaic industry [8] - Industrial silicon's production levels are currently high compared to the same period over the last six years, with inventories significantly above historical levels, suggesting a challenging supply-demand balance in the short term [10] Strategic Recommendations - Given the technical pressure on industrial silicon and the lack of short-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics, a cautious trading strategy focusing on potential price corrections may be advisable [12]
期市晨昏线7.17（晚）：乐观情绪再起 但工业硅上行遇阻
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-17 09:05