财政政策或加码？日本参院选举，五大不确定性下的政策变局

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant challenges for the ruling coalition, which must secure at least 50 additional seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Election Context - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, currently holds 75 non-renewable seats in the Senate and needs to win 50 more to maintain a majority [1]. - The election outcome could lead to various fiscal policies, including cash handouts and potential consumption tax cuts, depending on the coalition's performance [2][3]. Group 2: Possible Scenarios - Scenario A: The ruling coalition retains a majority, increasing the likelihood of cash handouts being included in the 2025 supplementary budget, but no consumption tax cuts in the 2026 tax reform proposal [2]. - Scenario B: The ruling coalition slightly loses its majority, leading to potential alliances with opposition parties, which may result in both cash handouts and temporary consumption tax cuts [3]. - Scenario C: A significant loss of majority may force the ruling coalition to include opposition parties, facing pressure for both cash handouts and consumption tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The cash handout policy, amounting to approximately ¥3.5 trillion (about 0.6% of GDP), is expected to have limited impact on economic growth, with only a projected 0.2% increase in private consumption and 0.1% in GDP [7][9]. - In contrast, a reduction in the food consumption tax from 8% to 0% could lead to a more substantial GDP growth of about 0.5% due to a decrease in the effective consumption tax rate [9]. - Analysts warn that temporary consumption tax cuts may lead to a significant GDP decline of 6% in Q2 2027 when these measures expire, potentially prompting political pressure to extend them [12]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite uncertainties surrounding the election, expectations remain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, maintaining the policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the fiscal year [13].