21深度｜被改写的中国迁徙版图

Core Insights - The population dynamics in China are shifting, with a notable trend of university graduates returning to their hometowns instead of migrating to major cities for employment [1][3][4] - In 2024, eight provinces experienced positive population growth, a decrease from eleven in 2023, while twenty provinces saw a total population decline of 3.04 million [1][5] - The attractiveness of provincial capitals is increasing, with 23 out of 25 reporting population growth in 2024 [11][12] Group 1: Population Trends - In 2024, over 80,000 net population inflow is expected in Chongqing, despite a slight overall population decline [1][9] - From 2020 to 2024, Zhejiang and Guangdong led in population growth, with increases of over 2 million and 1.56 million respectively [4][5] - The number of provinces with positive population growth has decreased from 15 in 2021 to only 8 in 2024 [5][6] Group 2: Employment Preferences - Many university graduates prefer to work in their hometowns due to perceived advantages over larger cities [3][4] - The report indicates that the talent attraction in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions remains strong, with significant numbers of graduates choosing these areas [4][5] - The employment landscape is changing, with a growing number of graduates considering second and third-tier cities due to lower living costs and better quality of life [17][18] Group 3: Migrant Worker Dynamics - The total number of migrant workers in China reached approximately 29.97 million in 2024, with a 0.7% increase from the previous year [7][8] - A significant shift is observed in the movement of migrant workers, with a higher proportion opting for intra-provincial migration rather than inter-provincial [8][9] - Policies aimed at improving local employment opportunities are encouraging migrant workers to return to their hometowns [9][10] Group 4: Urban Preferences - Provincial capitals are becoming more appealing due to better infrastructure and job opportunities compared to first-tier cities [11][12] - In 2024, major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experienced population declines, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw increases [14][18] - The trend indicates a more balanced distribution of talent across cities, with many graduates considering the trade-offs between high salaries in major cities and the cost of living [17][18]