美联储最爱的通胀指标或发出“拒绝”信号！7月降息基本无望？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is heavily influenced by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is considered a more accurate measure of inflation compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is particularly favored by the Federal Reserve as it is seen as the best predictor of future inflation [1] - Economists predict that the core PCE report to be released on July 31 will show an increase of 0.2% to 0.3%, which may not be low enough to convince most Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - The overall PCE inflation rate is also expected to rise by approximately 0.3%, with the annual increase potentially reaching 2.6% in June, up from 2.3% the previous month and 2.1% after the pandemic low [3] - The rising inflation trend is partially attributed to the tariff policies of the Trump administration [3] - Despite pressure from the White House, most Federal Reserve voting members are inclined to maintain current interest rates, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year if inflation threats diminish and the job market shows signs of weakness [3]