日债风暴暂歇但警报未除，日本政策“工具箱”还能撑多久

Group 1 - Japan's long-term bond market is experiencing volatility, with the 10-year bond yield dropping to 1.56% after reaching a high of 1.59%, the highest since October 2008 [1][3] - The public debt-to-GDP ratio in Japan is currently at 263%, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during the 2010 debt crisis, indicating a severe debt situation [2][7] - Concerns are rising about the potential for increased fiscal spending following the upcoming Senate elections, which could exacerbate Japan's debt crisis [3][4] Group 2 - The recent increase in bond yields across various maturities suggests a market reaction to the Bank of Japan's adjustments in its quantitative easing policy, leading to reduced liquidity [3][6] - Major Japanese life insurance companies are reducing their holdings in long-term bonds due to significant losses, with a reported $600 million in unrealized losses last fiscal year [5][6] - The upcoming Senate elections are critical, as the ruling coalition faces challenges that may force a shift towards more expansive fiscal policies [4][9] Group 3 - Analysts predict that Japan's long-term bond yields will remain elevated due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and potential fiscal expansion post-elections [6][8] - The Japanese government is likely to prioritize economic stability over strict fiscal discipline, potentially leading to increased debt levels [8][9] - There are concerns about Japan facing a recession, with recent economic indicators showing a deterioration in economic conditions [7][8]