棕榈油期价刷新阶段高点，政策红利驱动生物燃料需求，未来价格涨势能否持续？

Group 1: Domestic Market Trends - The domestic vegetable oil market shows significant differentiation, with palm oil reaching new highs, the main contract rising by 0.87% to refresh its peak, leading the oilseed sector [1] - Soybean oil steadily increased, with the main contract up by 0.50%, hitting a three-week high [1] - Canola oil experienced weak fluctuations, impacted by expectations of the China-Australia trade agreement, dropping to a two-week low before narrowing its decline to 0.14% due to short positions being reduced at the close [1] Group 2: Renewable Fuel Credits and Policies - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported an increase in renewable fuel blending credits for June, with ethanol (D6) credits at approximately 1.25 billion gallons, up from 1.22 billion gallons in May [3] - Biodiesel (D4) credits rose from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June, indicating increased activity in the fuel market, which is beneficial for demand for agricultural by-products [3] - Indonesia is exploring increasing biodiesel blending to 50% (B50), with research expected to be completed by the end of the year, although implementation by 2026 remains uncertain [3] Group 3: Global Palm Oil Price Outlook - Afrinvest's latest report predicts a significant rise in global palm oil prices, potentially reaching $1,200 per ton by the end of 2025, a 33% increase from the current price of $900 per ton [5] - The price increase is attributed to tightening supplies from major producers Indonesia and Malaysia, along with rising global demand driven by biofuel policies [5] - Geopolitical tensions have led to reduced sunflower oil supplies, further exacerbating the upward price trend [5] Group 4: Short-term Market Outlook - CICC Wealth Futures indicates that palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to declining exports, with domestic market momentum decreasing, although a strong oscillation state remains possible [7] - High domestic soybean crushing volumes and rising soybean oil inventories do not support excessive price increases for soybean oil [7] - The market for canola oil remains limited due to improved supply prospects following a near agreement on canola imports between China and Australia [7]