多晶硅期货创上市以来新高，主力单日飙升7.49%，后市该如何看？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices, driven by strong market sentiment and policy expectations in the photovoltaic industry, has led to a record high of 45,000 yuan/ton, marking a 7.49% increase in the main contract for 2508 [1] Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant increase in price support across its supply chain, with the silicon wafer sector leveraging low inventory strategies to propose price hikes while controlling shipments [2] - Recent policy announcements have bolstered market expectations, contributing to a favorable environment for polysilicon prices, which are being driven by both capital inflow and market sentiment [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite the recent price increase, the fundamental support for polysilicon remains weak, with supply and demand not showing substantial improvement. Short-term price movements are expected to be modestly upward as downstream silicon wafer companies may reduce production due to high raw material costs [3] - The recent halt in the downward trend of silicon wafer prices is attributed to rising polysilicon prices and improved supply-demand dynamics within the silicon wafer sector [3] Future Outlook - The market is currently characterized by significant divergence and limited transmission of price movements, with a focus on maintaining positions at the upper range of price fluctuations. The photovoltaic supply chain's price support is increasing, but terminal demand has not yet shown signs of recovery [4] - The recent increase in polysilicon prices has provided many manufacturers with opportunities to return to profitability, although this is not expected to be a consistent trend. Most manufacturers are likely to initiate new hedging strategies as polysilicon inventories remain high [5] - The overall demand for polysilicon is still under considerable pressure, with expectations of limited upward price movement due to weak terminal demand forecasts [5]