21专访｜潘向东：全年目标可控，四季度是政策加力的时点

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [1][2] - The growth was primarily supported by a rebound in consumption and exports, despite a slowdown in investment, particularly in real estate [1][2] Policy Implications - The macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year needs to focus on enhancing effectiveness, particularly in fiscal support and consumption policies to stimulate demand [5][6] - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies and the resumption of state subsidies are expected to further support domestic consumption and investment [5][6] Export and Import Trends - In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% while imports decreased by 2.7%, with strong performance in machinery, high-end equipment, and new energy products [7][8] - The export structure is shifting towards high-tech and high-value-added products, reflecting improvements in China's manufacturing capabilities [7][8] Future Outlook - The economic growth rate is expected to face downward pressure in the third and fourth quarters, but achieving the annual target remains relatively controllable due to a strong start [3][4] - The export growth is anticipated to maintain a moderate pace, with emerging markets continuing to drive trade growth [9]