创纪录！全球VLCC运力疯狂涌入这一航线...

Core Insights - The transportation of crude oil from Brazil to China is reshaping the global VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) capacity landscape, with record export volumes and significant implications for the shipping industry [2][3][11] Group 1: Transportation Volume and Growth - In Q2 2025, Brazil's crude oil exports to China reached a historical high of 93.6 million barrels, marking a 53% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 60% increase year-over-year, averaging about 31.2 million barrels per month [2] - The average "dirty tonne-miles" for this route has surpassed 2 billion tonne-miles since March 2025, reflecting a substantial increase of approximately 1 billion tonne-miles compared to 2023 [2] Group 2: VLCC Capacity Utilization - To meet the monthly transportation demand of over 31 million barrels, the Brazil-China route requires at least 15 to 16 VLCCs each month, translating to a long-term need for about 57 to 58 VLCCs, which constitutes 5% to 6% of the global VLCC fleet [3][11] - The actual utilization rate of VLCCs is estimated at around 90%, factoring in delays due to port congestion, maintenance, and other operational challenges [3] Group 3: Impact on Freight Rates - The surge in transportation demand has led to increased freight rates, with costs for VLCC transport from the U.S. Gulf to China peaking at $8.6 million per voyage in April 2025, before settling at $5.9 million in June, still above seasonal averages [3][4] Group 4: Structural Changes in Oil Procurement - China's crude oil procurement strategy is shifting towards long-distance, low-intervention sources, with Brazil emerging as a key supplier amid geopolitical uncertainties [7] - The relaxation of import quotas and improved refining margins have led to increased purchasing activity from independent refineries in Shandong province [7] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The VLCC market is expected to see positive developments in the coming months, driven by the structural changes in oil procurement and the strengthening of contracts between Petrobras and Chinese buyers [7][9] - Several shipowners are optimistic about the VLCC market, with 10 new VLCC orders placed this year, indicating confidence in future demand [9] Group 6: Long-term Implications for Shipping Strategy - The structural effect of the Brazil-China route on VLCC capacity is expected to persist, leading to increased costs for other shipping routes and necessitating a reevaluation of global deployment strategies by shipping companies [11] - The emergence of this route is not just a regional trade growth but signifies a new mechanism for capacity absorption, potentially leading to longer shipping cycles and tighter capacity in the VLCC market [11]