传统电商模式增势不足，白酒的未来在“即时零售”？

Core Insights - The "2025 China Baijiu Market Mid-term Research Report" indicates that from January to June, 42.9% of Baijiu production enterprises saw an increase in online business, while 20.0% experienced a decrease, and 37.1% remained stable, suggesting a lack of significant improvement in online business performance [1] - The shift from traditional B2C online sales to an "instant retail" model that integrates offline scenarios, online traffic, and immediate delivery is evident [1][15] E-commerce Evolution - The vertical e-commerce boom in the liquor industry has lasted over 15 years since its inception around 2010 [2] - Notable platforms like "Yemai Jiu" and "Jiuxian.com" emerged, with Jiuxian.com raising over 1 billion yuan in funding by 2014-2015, indicating strong capital support for this new model [3][7] - The rapid growth of vertical e-commerce was highlighted during the 2014 "Double 11" event, where Jiuxian.com sold 4.179 million bottles on Tmall, becoming the top seller in the liquor category [5] Challenges and Adjustments - The liquor industry faced a period of adjustment, with established pricing structures disrupted by emerging vertical e-commerce platforms, leading to conflicts between producers and e-commerce platforms [7] - Several vertical e-commerce platforms struggled to achieve profitability after multiple funding rounds, leading to a decline in confidence from both capital and industry [8] Impact of Live E-commerce - The rise of live e-commerce has posed a new challenge to traditional liquor e-commerce models, with significant growth observed post-2020 due to the pandemic [9][11] - By 2021, the live e-commerce market reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, with a penetration rate of 15%, showcasing the potential of this sales channel [13] - However, issues such as price chaos and trust erosion due to counterfeit products have emerged, complicating the landscape for producers [14] Future Trends - The report forecasts a slowdown in the growth of liquor e-commerce due to changing consumer demands and economic fluctuations, with online sales revenue for 18 A-share listed liquor companies totaling 33.22 billion yuan in 2024, a 3.7% decrease year-on-year [15] - Instant retail is expected to thrive, with a projected market size of 1 trillion yuan by 2025 and 2 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by the demand for quick delivery and convenience [16][20] - The liquor industry is likely to evolve towards a new consumption era characterized by instant retail, scenario integration, and live e-commerce as growth engines [20]