Buy, Sell Or Hold ASML Stock?

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock fell approximately 11% after its Q2 2025 earnings report due to a cautious outlook for 2026, despite reporting strong quarterly results [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue was 7.7 billion euros ($8.9 billion), at the upper end of guidance, with net income of 2.3 billion euros ($2.67 billion) [1] - Q3 revenue is projected between 7.4 to 7.9 billion euros, slightly below expectations, with a gross margin forecasted around 52%, narrowed from a previous range of 51% to 53% [1] Market Context - The semiconductor market remains strong, as evidenced by TSMC's robust quarterly results and a raised 2025 sales growth forecast of 30% in dollar terms [1] - ASML's cautious outlook contrasts with the broader industry trends, indicating specific challenges faced by the company [1] Product and Technology - ASML is the largest supplier of photolithography machines, particularly extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, essential for producing advanced chips at process nodes of 5 nanometers and below [5] - The demand for ASML's products has increased due to the integration of semiconductor chips in various sectors, especially driven by the AI boom [6] Order Book and Market Position - ASML reported net bookings of 5.5 billion euros ($6.4 billion), exceeding forecasts by about 25%, and has a record order backlog of 33 billion euros ($38 billion) [6] - The company has a lead time of 12 to 18 months for orders, reflecting customer confidence extending into 2026 [6] Valuation - ASML's stock trades at 27 times estimated FY2025 earnings, which is considered reasonable given the projected revenue growth of about 14% this year [6]