Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly due to Trump's ongoing pressure on Powell, leading to a reassessment of the central bank's policy outlook in the market. However, JPMorgan believes that there is no need for excessive concern [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve is not a new phenomenon, and its independence is described as a "myth" by JPMorgan's Ilan Benhamou, who notes that such situations have been occurring behind closed doors for decades [3]. - Historical precedents, such as President Johnson's conflict with former Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, illustrate the ongoing tension between political figures and the Fed [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan suggests continuing to invest in the S&P 500 and VIX indices, anticipating that investors will increasingly allocate funds to risk assets like cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, while uncertainties regarding tariffs, inflation, and Fed policies will heighten market volatility [2]. - As Powell's term nears its end, investors are expected to focus on the policy inclinations of the next Fed chair, with a growing dovish sentiment likely to support further gains in the stock market under expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Legal Implications of Dismissal - If Trump were to dismiss Powell, it would be a historic first in the U.S., likely resulting in a landmark lawsuit that could ultimately require a Supreme Court ruling [5]. - The Federal Reserve Act allows for the removal of board members, including the chair, "for cause," and Trump has suggested potential reasons for dismissal related to the Fed's renovation costs [6]. Group 4: Supreme Court's Position - The Supreme Court previously indicated that Trump cannot dismiss Powell without cause, recognizing the Fed as a "structurally unique quasi-private entity," but left open the possibility for "for cause" dismissals [7]. - Legal experts suggest that even if the court finds the dismissal unlawful, it remains uncertain whether Powell could retain his position, given the court's limitations on providing "equitable relief" for high-ranking officials [7].
摩根大通:别太担心鲍威尔,美联储独立性本来就是“神话”,降息押注下美股将继续涨
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-17 13:44