Starbucks Faces Looming Brazil Coffee Tariffs: Can It Absorb the Hit?

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is facing significant macroeconomic challenges, particularly a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports effective August 1, which could increase the cost of goods sold by up to 3.5% and result in a 0.6% headwind to earnings [1][8] Group 1: Company Strategy and Response - In response to tariff pressures, Starbucks has established a cross-functional tariff mitigation team and is accelerating nearshoring efforts to move production out of high-tariff regions [2][8] - The company is utilizing its global procurement capabilities and a long-standing hedging program to manage commodity price volatility [2] - Starbucks has decided to maintain its pricing strategy through fiscal 2025 as part of its "Back to Starbucks" initiative, aiming to enhance customer loyalty and operational efficiency [3][8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Unlike Starbucks, competitors such as The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) have opted to increase prices to counteract rising input costs, which may introduce volume risks in a price-sensitive market [4][5] - Keurig Dr Pepper's U.S. Coffee segment reported a 12.5% decline in operating income due to green coffee inflation, while J.M. Smucker experienced a margin compression of approximately 50 basis points in its retail coffee division [4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Starbucks shares have increased by 13.5% over the past three months, outperforming the industry average rise of 4.5% [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.71, which is below the industry average of 4.02 [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected decline of 25.1% in fiscal 2025 EPS, with a subsequent rise of 19.5% in 2026 [10]