Company Overview - Beijing Enterprises Water Group was established in 2008, focusing on wastewater and reclaimed water treatment, water supply services, water environment governance construction, technical and consulting services, equipment sales, and urban resource services [1] - The company is transitioning to a light asset operation model, with engineering business continuously shrinking, leading to a projected gross profit margin of 6.4% by 2024 [1] - As of the end of 2024, Beijing Holdings will hold 41.1% of the company's shares, with the actual controller being the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] Financial Highlights - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease to 4.11 billion HKD in 2024, a year-on-year reduction of 2.89 billion HKD, while maintaining stable dividends with a dividend per share of no less than 0.157 HKD since 2021, resulting in a projected dividend yield of 6.22% for 2024 [1] - The company has experienced profit fluctuations over the past three years due to the sale of joint ventures and impairment provisions, but the increase in operational proportion is expected to enhance future earnings stability [3] Industry Analysis - The water supply and wastewater treatment sectors are projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.37% and 1.2% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2] - The competitive landscape shows a trend of regional monopolies coexisting with national leaders, with the company holding a market share of 1.8% in water supply and 8.2% in wastewater treatment as of 2023 [2] - The company has reduced its uninvested capacity since 2022, with operational capacity expected to reach 33.84 million tons per day by the end of 2024, resulting in a capacity elasticity of 29.2% [2] Pricing and Revenue - Since November 2023, some cities have increased the basic water price for residential use by an average of 0.36 HKD per ton, reflecting a 21.3% increase, which may benefit the company's relatively stable water pricing [2] - The company's revenue from water environment governance construction services is projected to decrease, with the share of profit from comprehensive governance projects and BOT water projects expected to drop to 7.8% and 4.6%, respectively, by 2024 [2] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.66 billion HKD, 1.70 billion HKD, and 1.71 billion HKD for the years 2025 to 2027, with a projected dividend growth of 3% from 2024 [3] - The anticipated dividend yields for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.4%, 6.6%, and 6.8%, respectively, supporting a "buy" rating for the stock [3]
北控水务集团(0371.HK)：全国性水务龙头 分红保障稳健收益