关税通胀效应虽迟但到，美国消费者正感受初步刺痛

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated widespread price increases due to new tariffs have largely not materialized, surprising economists, but the reality is that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is gaining momentum [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Tariff Impact - In June, prices for frequently imported goods such as furniture, sports equipment, and appliances rose at the fastest pace in years, indicating that the cost transmission from tariffs is having a tangible impact on specific product categories [1] - The overall inflation data has been suppressed by declines in automobile prices and certain service categories, providing arguments for tariff proponents who claim that tariffs have not affected inflation [1][4] - Economists predict that inflation driven by tariffs will continue to strengthen in the coming months as companies face increasing pressure to raise prices [1][7] Group 2: Corporate Strategies and Inventory Management - Many companies have delayed the full impact of tariffs on consumer prices by absorbing increased costs rather than passing them on, and some have built inventory buffers before tariffs took effect [2][3] - Fastenal reported that despite attempts to diversify supply chains and build inventory, they have had to raise prices multiple times recently and may need to do so again in the future [4] Group 3: Global Price Dynamics - Foreign suppliers have partially offset the impact of tariffs by lowering export prices to the U.S. to maintain competitiveness, with global factory prices remaining subdued [5] - Japan's export prices have contracted for three consecutive months, and Chinese export prices for various goods have also shown declines [5][6] Group 4: Future Inflation Expectations - Economists warn that the current calm in inflation is temporary, and as companies deplete their pre-stocked inventory, they will be less willing to sacrifice profits [7] - If tariffs are fully transmitted, it is estimated that the recent tariffs could raise the preferred inflation indicator by approximately 0.4 percentage points [7]