货币政策稳增长措施仍需加码

Monetary Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, China's monetary policy can be divided into two phases, with a cautious approach in Q1 due to exchange rate depreciation pressures and strong market expectations [1] - In April, the focus shifted to "stabilizing growth" as the primary goal of monetary policy, leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1][2] - The expectation for the second half of the year is that monetary policy will continue to emphasize "stabilizing growth," with potential for further easing measures [1][2] Economic Indicators - The growth rate of social financing increased to 8.9% year-on-year, supported by government bond financing, but may face challenges in the second half due to a potential slowdown in new government debt issuance [3] - The total scale of government bonds for the year is projected at 13.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 billion yuan compared to 2024 [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The overall trend for the US dollar is expected to remain weak, influenced by concerns over US economic recession and the long-term trend of de-dollarization in global markets [3][4] - A weaker dollar is anticipated to provide effective support for the Chinese yuan, with expectations of a slight appreciation to around 7 to 7.1 [4]