黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.7.18）

Fundamental Analysis - US economic data shows June retail sales increased by 0.6% and core retail sales rose by 0.5%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, the lowest in three months, supporting the Fed's decision to delay interest rate cuts, which puts short-term pressure on gold prices. However, potential risks from slowing wage growth provide long-term support for gold [3] - There is a divergence in the Federal Reserve's internal views. Hawkish member Cook believes restrictive policies should be maintained to curb inflation expectations, while dovish member Daly supports two rate cuts by the end of the year. Member Waller suggests a 25 basis point cut in July. This divergence has led to fluctuations in the interest rate futures market, with a 54% probability of a rate cut in September and a 30% chance in July [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, particularly between Japan and the US, is causing import prices to rise and increasing inflation expectations, which enhances gold's safe-haven appeal. Although gold prices are under short-term pressure, escalating trade tensions may lead to a rebound in gold prices [3] - Key data to watch includes US June housing starts and building permits at 20:30, followed by July's one-year inflation expectations and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index at 22:00 [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have shown erratic movements this week, with a strong resistance level above and a support level below. The current moving averages indicate a wide-ranging consolidation pattern. A rising channel formed by connecting the high and low points since July suggests important guidance for intraday movements, with resistance at 3379/3380 and support at 3292 [4] - On the four-hour chart, gold prices reached a high of 3377 but failed to maintain the upward momentum. After breaking below the previous low of 3319, prices rebounded, recovering nearly half of the decline. The analysis indicates that the high of 3377 may represent a wave peak, with resistance levels at 3351/3352 and 3363. If the price breaks above 3377, it may indicate that the upward wave is not yet complete. Key support levels to monitor are 3282 and 3247, with a break below these levels suggesting a potential downward trend [6]