张尧浠：多空因素继续博弈、金价维持震荡待涨前景预期

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a volatile trend with a higher probability of upward movement in the future, despite short-term pressures [1][3]. Market Performance - On July 17, gold opened at $3347.73 per ounce, reached a high of $3352.00, then fell to a low of $3309.90 before closing at $3338.73, with a daily fluctuation of $42.1 and a decrease of $9, or 0.27% [1][3]. - The dollar index experienced a pullback, which contributed to the recovery of gold prices [3]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the annualized number of new housing starts in June (in thousands), the number of building permits in June (in thousands), the preliminary one-year inflation rate for July, and the preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for July [5]. - The overall market expectation is leaning towards a bearish outlook for gold prices based on these indicators [5]. Market Sentiment - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, there is still optimism regarding the long-term outlook for gold, supported by buying interest at lower price levels [5]. - The market is currently influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve monetary policy, tariff policies, and U.S. economic data [5]. Future Projections - The expectation is that if interest rates are not cut in September, gold prices may experience a significant correction, potentially reaching the $3000 mark. Conversely, if rates are cut, gold could rise to $3500 or higher [3][5]. - The analysis suggests that after a period of adjustment in the second half of the year, gold prices may enter a bullish phase in the first half of next year [5]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate that gold prices have not firmly broken below the 10-week moving average support, suggesting potential for upward movement towards $3400 or $3500 [7]. - Daily charts show that gold prices are still within a triangular consolidation pattern, with an upward breakout expected despite potential short-term pullbacks [9]. Trading Strategy - Initial trading points suggest monitoring support levels at $3330 or $3320 and resistance levels at $3345 or $3360 for gold [10].