Group 1: Zinc Price Trends - Zinc prices showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, influenced by increasing overseas mine supply and weak demand [2] - From late March to early April, zinc prices further declined due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and a gradual increase in zinc mine output [2] - By April to June, the impact of U.S. tariffs lessened, but low inventory levels continued to affect prices, leading to a weak consolidation phase [2] Group 2: Zinc Supply Dynamics - Global zinc mine production increased by nearly 190,000 tons in the first four months of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, primarily driven by the resumption of overseas mines [3] - Domestic zinc mine production decreased by nearly 30,000 tons year-on-year, slightly below expectations [3] - The cash cost of zinc mines at the 90th percentile is approximately $2,000 per ton, indicating a profit margin of nearly 30% based on average zinc prices [3] Group 3: Smelting and Refining Insights - Global zinc ingot production decreased by about 106,000 tons year-on-year in the first four months, with China's production down nearly 130,000 tons [3] - Zinc concentrate inventory at smelting plants increased by nearly 22% year-on-year by June, reaching historical highs [4] - The processing fee for zinc concentrate in China has risen to over 3,600 yuan per metal ton, indicating a recovery trend [4] Group 4: Demand Factors - Infrastructure investment remains stable, with significant growth in the electricity sector and a rebound in public facilities, while the transportation sector shows weakness [5] - The real estate market continues to be at a low point, with a declining share of zinc demand expected in 2025 [5] - Automotive production, sales, and exports have shown strong growth, but there are concerns about a potential slowdown in demand in the second half of the year [5] Group 5: Export Trends - Zinc product exports surged in the first half of the year due to U.S. tariff policies, with notable increases in galvanized sheets and zinc alloys [7] - However, as the export rush subsides and tariffs are implemented, there may be downward pressure on exports of primary zinc products [7] - Overall, the zinc market is expected to transition from a tight supply situation to a more relaxed one, with a clearer downward trend in zinc prices anticipated for 2025 [7]
库存拐点渐显 锌价向下动力增强
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-18 00:59