巴西丰产预期压制 原糖继续承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is currently characterized by a strong domestic market in China and a weak international market, primarily due to increased sugar production expectations in Brazil, although this dynamic may change with the influx of imported sugar [2][4]. Group 1: Global Sugar Production and Market Dynamics - Czarnikow forecasts that global sugar production for the 2025/2026 season will reach 185.9 million tons, the second-highest on record, while demand is expected to decrease slightly by 1.1 million tons to 178.3 million tons [3]. - Brazil remains the most significant source of sugar, with a reported sugar production of 2.45 million tons in the first half of June, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.12% [3]. - Despite a slowdown in sugar processing in Brazil, strong export demand has kept inventories in good condition, providing crucial support for raw sugar prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Sugar Market in China - Domestic sugar prices in China have remained robust due to reliance on imports to fill supply gaps, with no significant accumulation of domestic inventories expected through the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 seasons [4]. - As of the end of May, China had produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons year-on-year, with sales reaching 8.11 million tons, up 1.52 million tons year-on-year [4]. - The opening of the import window for sugar outside of quotas in late April has led to an expected increase in imports, with July imports projected to reach 750,000 to 800,000 tons, potentially impacting domestic market dynamics [4].