鲍威尔已实质“出局”？小摩：降息押注将推动市场继续狂飙

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the notion of the Federal Reserve being free from political pressure is a "myth," and bets on interest rate cuts will drive U.S. stocks higher [2][3] - The current situation is compared to the historical conflict between President Lyndon Johnson and Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, highlighting the ongoing tension regarding the Fed's independence [2][3] - Analysts warn that if former President Trump were to dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, it could disrupt financial markets and lead to significant legal confrontations [3] Group 2 - Executives from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs emphasize the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, noting that any new chair must gain support from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for interest rate adjustments [4] - There is a divergence in rate expectations among policymakers regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, primarily due to differing views on how Trump's tariffs will impact inflation [4] - The market is expected to soon recognize Powell's effective "exit" and begin pricing in the policies of the next potential chair, with a "dovish race" anticipated among candidates like Hassett, Waller, or Walsh [4]