出口旺季到来！草甘膦价格上行，两个月内涨了2800元／吨

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-May, the price of glyphosate has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase attributed to low market inventory, production rumors from Monsanto, and the onset of the export season [1][3] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of July 16, glyphosate raw material prices reached approximately 26,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.97% from mid-May's low of 23,400 yuan/ton and a 4.80% rise compared to the same period last year [1] - The industry gross profit margin has turned positive, reaching 2.54%, with a gross profit of 666 yuan/ton [1][5] - The price of glyphosate is expected to fluctuate between 24,500 and 26,500 yuan/ton in 2024, which is 20%-25% lower than the average price of 32,700 yuan/ton in 2023 [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Glyphosate accounts for approximately 30% of the global herbicide market, with an estimated global production capacity of 1.183 million tons in 2024 [2] - The supply-demand balance is shifting, with increased orders from export markets, particularly in South America, and a tightening of market circulation due to production adjustments [3][6] - The export volume of glyphosate from China is projected to increase, with significant demand from Brazil and the U.S. expected to drive prices higher during the peak export season [3][6] Group 3: Industry Outlook and Profitability - The glyphosate industry is beginning to see profitability after a period of losses, with companies like Xingfa Group indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profits [4][5] - The market anticipates further price increases due to tight supply conditions and rising demand, particularly as planting areas expand and alternative herbicides exit the market [6]