摩根士丹利：美股短期回调风险加剧，标普500或先跌5%-10%

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is poised for a new bull market, but short-term risks should be monitored [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index may decline by 5% to 10% within the current quarter due to pressure on corporate earnings from President Trump's trade policies, but this pullback is expected to be "temporary and mild," providing a buying opportunity for investors [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 20% since its low in April, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - Recent broad tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration are beginning to impact corporate balance sheets, with the third-quarter earnings season expected to reflect these effects for the first time [3] - The number of industries with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased, indicating that companies are gradually absorbing the impact of tariffs [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by a few technology giants, while cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials have not fully participated [3] - If trade risks lead to a broader earnings revision, funds may shift from growth stocks to value stocks, resulting in a more balanced rise in the index components [3] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - The market oscillates between fear and greed, and the key is to distinguish between temporary pullbacks and structural bear markets, with corporate earnings trajectories serving as the ultimate judge [3]