大摩前知名空头：美股本季度或至多跌10%，但“绝对”是抄底机会！

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson believes a bull market is forming in U.S. stocks, but the S&P 500 index may face a 5%-10% decline this quarter due to the impact of President Trump's trade policies on corporate balance sheets, which will provide an attractive entry point for investors [1] - The S&P 500 index recently reached a new all-time high, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion in just a few months, following a brief bear market triggered by Trump's tariffs [1][2] - Wilson noted that the breadth of earnings revisions is improving, indicating that companies are effectively managing the challenges posed by tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - The third quarter is expected to be a concentrated risk period, as the effects of tariffs may start to impact product sales costs, but any market impact is anticipated to be temporary, with investors focusing on growth expectations for 2026 [3] - Recent strong retail sales data in June alleviated some concerns regarding consumer spending, supporting the positive outlook for the market [3] - Despite uncertainties surrounding the White House's trade plans potentially leading to short-term declines, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, having already bottomed out in April [5]