2025年上半年银行间货币市场回顾与下半年展望

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, China faces increasing internal and external challenges, leading to a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank to support economic recovery and maintain liquidity [1][2]. Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank implemented a moderately loose monetary policy to address external shocks and maintain liquidity, balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][12]. - Key actions included adjusting the medium-term lending facility, increasing targeted loans for consumption and agriculture, and lowering policy interest rates [3][12]. Market Operations - The monetary policy operations in the first half of 2025 featured a focus on optimizing interest rate control mechanisms and enhancing structural monetary policy tools [3]. - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut was implemented, alongside various liquidity support measures [3][12]. - The central bank temporarily paused government bond purchases to maintain market stability [3]. Market Performance - The interbank market saw a total transaction volume of 786.23 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.13% year-on-year, with pledged repos dominating the market [6]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit surged, with a total issuance of 17.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 6.6% increase year-on-year [7][8]. Interest Rate Trends - The first half of 2025 saw a three-phase interest rate trend: initial tightening due to deposit management, followed by easing as liquidity improved, and finally a slight tightening due to increased special bond issuance [5][13]. - The average interest rates for one-year interbank certificates of deposit decreased to around 1.65% by the end of June 2025 [8][15]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with continued support for economic recovery and low inflation [16][17]. - The central bank is likely to utilize various policy tools to enhance the transmission of monetary policy and support the real economy [17][18].