印尼获美国较低关税 交易式外交达成“不良先例”？

Core Points - Indonesia has reached a trade agreement with the United States, which includes a 19% tariff on all imported Indonesian goods, while Indonesian purchases of $15 billion in U.S. energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft are promised [1][3] - The agreement is seen as a diplomatic victory for Indonesia, with President Prabowo emphasizing its mutual benefits and potential to enhance local industries [3][7] - The deal may set a concerning precedent for Indonesia's future negotiations with other economic partners, as it could lead to similar demands from other countries [2][10] Trade Impact - The U.S. trade deficit with Indonesia was $17.9 billion in 2024, with bilateral trade amounting to $38.3 billion [4] - Key Indonesian exports to the U.S. include palm oil, coffee, cocoa, textiles, and semiconductors, which may benefit from the tariff reduction [4] - Indonesia's textile and footwear sectors may face challenges due to the new tariffs, while the energy and agricultural sectors could see gains [1][4] Economic Concerns - The agreement's energy procurement commitment of $15 billion raises questions about Indonesia's goals to reduce fossil fuel dependency and promote renewable energy [6] - The removal of localization production requirements may negatively impact local manufacturing, leading to dissatisfaction among companies that have invested significantly to comply with these regulations [6][10] - The deal is perceived to offer more political than economic benefits, as the U.S. remains a less significant trading partner compared to Indonesia's Asian counterparts [7][10] Regional Reactions - Other Asian countries are closely monitoring the U.S.-Indonesia agreement to strategize their own trade negotiations [2][8] - The agreement may influence Indonesia's ongoing trade talks with the EU, as both parties have been at odds over localization policies and environmental regulations [8][9] - Concerns arise that Indonesia's concessions to the U.S. could weaken its negotiating position with other trade partners, including the Eurasian Economic Union and the Southern Common Market [10][12]