关税滞后效应显现，三季度起或推高美国通胀？

Group 1 - The impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation has become a focal point in the market, with significant increases in tariffs since the beginning of the year, but the transmission effect on inflation has not been immediate [1] - The delayed transmission of tariffs to inflation is attributed to several factors, including phased implementation and transportation time lags, which typically require months to significantly affect prices [1] - Companies have adopted strategies such as restructuring trade and increasing domestic procurement to mitigate the actual tariff burden, while some industries have stockpiled inventory to temporarily avoid passing on tariff costs to consumers [1] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is merely delayed and not eliminated, with expectations that tariffs will gradually raise U.S. inflation levels starting in the third quarter [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is significantly influenced by concerns over tariffs pushing inflation, leading to a postponement of interest rate cuts [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, along with the potential impacts of immigration policy and the "Big Beautiful" Act, may contribute to increased inflation levels in the fourth quarter [3][7] Group 3 - Market participants express concern that while the magnitude of tariff transmission to inflation may be less than expected, its persistence could exceed expectations, leading to increased volatility in U.S. Treasury yields [5] - Analysts note that the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and the time lag in its inflation impact create uncertainty regarding the timing of these effects [5] - The overall uncertainty in monetary policy is expected to rise by 2026 due to the delayed effects of tariffs and other economic factors, potentially slowing the pace of interest rate cuts [7]