Workflow
美联储掌门人更迭在即:一场政治与市场的博弈
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-18 05:55

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political maneuvering surrounding the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the tension between monetary policy independence and political loyalty to Trump [2][3][5]. Group 1: Powell's Situation - Powell faces a significant political crisis, with the probability of his dismissal rising from 15% to 38% in just two weeks, marking the most severe political challenge for a sitting Fed chair in a century [3]. - The Trump administration has initiated the process to select a new Fed chair, despite Powell's term not ending until May 2026, indicating a potential power transition [5]. Group 2: Potential Successors - Kevin Hassett, the White House Chief Economic Advisor, is currently the frontrunner for the Fed chair position, benefiting from a close relationship with Trump and shared economic views [7]. - Hassett's lack of practical monetary policy experience and low industry support (7% in a Bank of America survey) raise concerns about his suitability for the role [9]. - Other candidates include current Treasury Secretary Becerra (26% support), former Fed Governor Warsh (17% support), and current Fed Governor Waller (14% support), each with their own strengths and weaknesses [11][13]. Group 3: Trump's Expectations - Trump demands that the new Fed chair must comply with his directive to lower interest rates and align with his "MAGA economic agenda," emphasizing the need for loyalty over independence [15]. - The selection process may accelerate due to Trump's aversion to policy delays, potentially leading to a quicker transition than anticipated [15]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The new Fed chair will face significant challenges, including rising inflation due to tariffs, weakening economic momentum, and concerns over the Fed's independence from political influence [17][19]. - The historical precedent of political interference in the Fed's operations raises alarms about the potential consequences of appointing a politically loyal chair [19][21]. Group 5: Implications for Global Finance - The outcome of this leadership transition could have profound implications for the Fed's policy independence and the global financial order, with fears that a politically aligned chair could lead to a weakening of the dollar and accelerate de-dollarization efforts [22]. - Key upcoming dates, such as the Fed's interest rate meeting on July 29 and potential new tariffs on August 1, are critical for market participants to monitor [23].