DYEC(SH:600403) Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2025-07-18 06:59Group 1: Company Performance - Dayou Energy (大有能源) expects a net loss of 820 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 490 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating an increased loss [2] - The main reason for the increased loss is the continuous decline in the price of thermal coal, with an average price drop of approximately 29% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in coal sales revenue by about 746 million yuan [2][4] - Despite an increase in coal production (5.21 million tons, up 10.17%) and sales (5.08 million tons, up 9.66%), the revenue loss from falling prices could not be offset, resulting in a coal sales revenue of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.22% [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The domestic coal market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with high production levels and limited demand growth, leading to a downward trend in coal prices [3][5] - As of June 27, 2025, the price of Q5000 thermal coal in Shandong was reported at 535-560 yuan per ton, a cumulative drop of 162.5 yuan per ton (22.89%) since the end of 2024 [3] - The overall coal supply remains sufficient, with national coal production reaching 1.99 billion tons from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand relationship in the first half of 2025, with prices likely to continue declining [5] - For the second half of 2025, it is anticipated that the supply-demand situation may ease, with potential support for coal prices during the peak summer months due to increased electricity consumption [7] - Forecasts suggest that the average price of Q5000 thermal coal in Shandong for the second half of 2025 may be around 560 yuan per ton, a decrease of approximately 60 yuan per ton (9.68%) from the first half [7]