特朗普也没想到，莫迪手握3张“王牌”，决定在关税战中硬刚美国，印度胜算有多大？

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around India's announcement to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. goods, escalating trade tensions between the two nations [1][4] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between the U.S. and India reached $195 billion, with a trade deficit of $38 billion for the U.S., indicating India's export advantage [3][5] - India's exports of electronic products to the U.S. accounted for 35.8% of its total electronic exports, valued at $14.4 billion in 2024, showcasing India's reliance on specific product categories [3] Group 2 - India has been actively signing free trade agreements (FTAs) with various countries, enhancing its market access and competitiveness in international trade [4][5] - The retaliatory tariffs are aimed at U.S. agricultural and industrial products, which could significantly impact U.S. exports and domestic political dynamics [5][7] - India's domestic market, with a population of 1.4 billion, presents a significant consumption potential that U.S. companies are keen to tap into, making it a crucial bargaining chip in negotiations [8] Group 3 - Despite India's assertive stance, there are internal challenges, including opposition from domestic parties and concerns from farmers about the impact of U.S. agricultural imports [7][9] - India's economic structure shows weaknesses, such as reliance on imports for high-end technology and a significant income disparity among its population, which could hinder its ability to withstand trade pressures [9][11] - The outcome of the trade conflict could lead to a potential decline in India's economic growth by 1.2-1.5 percentage points and a significant drop in foreign investment if negotiations fail [11]