“罢免鲍威尔”事件，为何会引起市场的短线恐慌？

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets experienced unexpected volatility due to rumors of President Trump planning to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which were later denied by Trump, leading to a quick market recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the rumors of Powell's potential dismissal, U.S. stock markets retreated from record highs, gold prices increased amid uncertainty, and the dollar experienced a sharp decline [3]. - The market's initial reaction indicated concerns over Trump's potential actions against Powell, but the volatility was contained as many believed the likelihood of such actions was low [3]. Group 2: Risks and Predictions - Deutsche Bank reported that the risk of Powell's dismissal is underestimated, predicting that if Trump forces Powell out, the trade-weighted dollar could drop by 3% to 4% within 24 hours, and fixed-income products could face a sell-off of 30 to 40 basis points [5]. - Analysts warned that if Trump were to dismiss Powell, it could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to significant market turmoil, particularly in the bond market [5]. Group 3: Trump and Powell's Relationship - Trump has consistently criticized Powell, expressing dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest rate policies and advocating for a reduction of the benchmark rate by up to 3 percentage points [7]. - Some government officials believe that Powell's handling of certain Fed matters could provide Trump with a legal basis to dismiss him, although this remains contentious [7]. Group 4: Legal Implications - Powell's term as chairman ends in May 2026, and he has stated he would not resign if asked by Trump, emphasizing the Fed's independence [9]. - Legal experts suggest that Trump may not have the authority to dismiss Powell without cause, referencing a Supreme Court ruling that could protect the Fed from such actions [9].