【UNFX课堂】日本大选前夕：日元面临多重压力，美元/日元或将“起飞”

Group 1 - The upcoming Japanese Senate election is casting a long shadow over the financial market, with both Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and the yen (JPY) showing signs of unease due to political uncertainty, fiscal policy pressures, and the slow shift in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy [1][2] - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito is facing potential instability, with polls indicating they may not secure a majority of 125 seats, which could lead to leadership changes or an unstable coalition government, raising concerns about Japan's ability to navigate complex trade negotiations and coherent fiscal policies [2] - Various political parties have made popular but market-unfriendly promises during the campaign, such as consumption tax cuts and expanded childcare support, which could exacerbate Japan's already significant debt burden, making it one of the most indebted developed economies globally [2] Group 2 - The yen has been underperforming recently, acting as a reluctant substitute in the G10 currencies, with the euro and Swiss franc gaining favor as safe-haven assets, as evidenced by a 6% rise in the euro/yen since June [3] - The current environment of fiscal concerns and U.S. trade headwinds is eroding the yen's credibility, leading to a situation where the market no longer instinctively turns to the yen during dollar declines [3] - If the election results in chaos, such as a divided parliament, the USD/JPY could potentially breach psychological levels of 150, driven by the prevailing uncertainty [4] Group 3 - Long-term prospects may shift if the BoJ raises interest rates in October due to persistent inflation, while the Federal Reserve may lower rates in December, leading to a rapid change in macroeconomic trends [5] - Seasonal dollar weakness could see the USD/JPY retreat to around 140 by the end of the year, suggesting that the current perceived weakness of the yen could serve as a springboard for future rebounds, especially if the BoJ tightens policy while the Fed loosens [5]