巨富金业：沃勒力挺7月降息，经济风险加剧，黄金或迎关键转折点

Group 1 - Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting to address rising economic risks [2][3] - He highlights significant risks in the labor market, indicating that private sector job growth is nearing a "stall" and that the true health of the labor market is questionable [3] - Waller suggests that the policy rate should be lowered to around 3%, which is significantly below current levels [3] Group 2 - There is a notable divide within the Federal Reserve, with some officials expressing concerns about the inflationary effects of tariffs and maintaining a restrictive policy stance [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July remain low, with a 97.4% probability of maintaining current rates according to CME data [4] - Waller's dovish comments have led some institutions, like Goldman Sachs, to reassess the likelihood of a rate cut, suggesting it could rise to 15% if economic data weakens [4] Group 3 - Waller's statements have had a direct impact on the gold market, with gold prices experiencing a slight increase following his remarks [5] - Historically, rate cuts tend to boost gold prices by lowering opportunity costs and driving funds away from interest-bearing assets [7] - The anticipation of a weaker dollar due to rate cut expectations has also enhanced the attractiveness of gold, as indicated by a drop in the dollar index [7] Group 4 - Increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been observed, driven by Waller's warnings about economic downturn risks and geopolitical uncertainties [9] - The World Gold Council reported a 12-ton increase in gold ETF holdings since July, reflecting a defensive positioning by institutional investors [9] - Waller's comments serve as a microcosm of the internal Federal Reserve dynamics and the broader market's search for balance amid risks and opportunities [9]