每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-07-18）

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policies - The potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by Trump could lead to declines in the dollar, stocks, and short-term bond yields, while long-term yields may rise sharply [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is urged not to become complacent with current policy outcomes due to the strengthening euro and tariff uncertainties impacting economic outlook [2] - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the notion of the Federal Reserve being free from political pressure is a myth, and the U.S. stock market may continue to rise based on expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rates - Barclays reports that recent labor market data in the UK shows signs of weakness, which may bolster the Bank of England's confidence in cutting interest rates in August [4] - Deutsche Bank maintains its forecast for U.S. and German bond yields to remain stable, with limited downward movement expected due to anticipated rate cuts from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve [5] Group 3: Trade and Consumer Impact - Wells Fargo economists indicate that rising import prices in the U.S. suggest that foreign exporters are not absorbing the higher tariff costs imposed by Trump, leading domestic companies to pass these costs onto consumers [6] Group 4: Industry Trends and Opportunities - CICC expresses optimism about the ongoing AI Agent industry wave, predicting significant scaling in various sectors by 2025 as technology matures [7] - CITIC Securities highlights the investment opportunities in the non-bank sector, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and regulatory changes that could enhance revenue growth for brokerage firms [8] - The gaming industry is experiencing robust growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in mobile game market size, benefiting gaming platforms and communities [9] - CITIC Securities notes that OPEC+'s production increases may support oil prices, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation in the coming years [10] - Huaxi Securities emphasizes the high growth potential of the optical module industry, driven by increasing AI demand and capital expenditures [11] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the domestic energy storage market's demand growth in the short, medium, and long term, supported by new pricing mechanisms [12]