万腾外汇：如果当前通胀并未失控，美联储为何还在坚持高利率？

Core Viewpoint - The recent statement by Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicates a shift in the internal perspective on current monetary policy, suggesting a potential move towards interest rate cuts due to reassessments of economic fundamentals, employment, and inflation [1] Group 1: Reasons for Supporting Rate Cuts - Waller's first reason highlights that new import tariffs may temporarily raise prices, but these are one-time changes and should not warrant a high interest rate response, as inflation expectations remain stable [3] - He emphasizes that the current federal funds rate is significantly above the neutral rate, which is estimated to be around 3%, while the current rate exceeds 5%, indicating a tight monetary policy that is not supported by economic data [3] - Economic growth is projected to be weak, with GDP growth in the first half of the year potentially at only 1%, and unemployment nearing long-term levels at 4.1%, suggesting that maintaining high rates is a lagging response to economic conditions [3] Group 2: Employment Market Concerns - Waller warns against being misled by seemingly stable employment data, noting that many labor market indicators may be revised downwards, and private sector job growth is nearly stagnant [4] - He points out that risks in the employment market are accumulating, advocating for preemptive measures rather than reactive ones when unemployment rises significantly [4] - The statement signals that the current high interest rate policy may be disconnected from the actual macroeconomic situation, with inflation near targets and economic growth insufficient, making continued high rates seem inappropriate [4]