Nvidia(US:NVDA) 智通财经网·2025-07-18 11:13Core Viewpoint - Despite ongoing bullish sentiment among investors for Nvidia (NVDA.US), signs of overheating in the stock's rapid price increase have emerged, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpassing 80, a level not seen since June 2024, which preceded a significant price drop of over 20% in the following weeks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The current overbought condition is evident, prompting caution among analysts, although it does not necessarily indicate an imminent reversal in stock price [3]. - Nvidia's stock has surged 83% since April, driven by increased investments in AI services from major clients, following a period of market concern over potential cuts in AI spending due to tariffs [3][4]. - The recent price increase is attributed to the U.S. government's approval for Nvidia to resume sales of certain AI chips in China, potentially recovering $15 billion in revenue at risk due to export controls [3][4]. Group 2: Company Valuation and Market Position - Nvidia's market capitalization has increased by approximately $1.9 trillion since April, surpassing Meta's total market value, with its current valuation at $4.2 trillion, leading the global market by about $400 billion over Microsoft [4]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for Nvidia stands at 34, higher than the low of 20 in April but still below the five-year average of around 40 [4]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia's prospects, with only 1 out of 79 covering analysts rating the stock as a "sell," while 9 maintain a "hold" rating [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Earnings Expectations - Continued positive signals in AI demand, as indicated by strong forecasts from TSMC, support a bullish outlook for Nvidia [4]. - Expectations are high for Nvidia to report strong quarterly results and potentially raise guidance, with projections of sustained growth in its data center business for at least one to two more years [5].