Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of the optical module market in China, particularly for leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, is driven by increasing demand for AI data center communication equipment, with significant stock price increases observed in recent months [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Xinyi Sheng and Zhongji Xuchuang saw stock price increases of 43.90% and 56.54% in June, followed by further increases of 41.96% and 27.22% by mid-July [1]. - The global market share of Chinese optical module companies has risen from 32% in 2018 to 55% in 2023, indicating strong competitiveness [1][6]. Group 2: Technology and Demand - Optical modules are essential for converting optical and electrical signals, with increasing demand driven by AI, cloud computing, and 5G technologies [3][4]. - The introduction of new AI models has significantly increased the demand for inference computing power, further boosting the need for optical modules [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Xinyi Sheng is projected to achieve a revenue of 8.647 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 179.15%, with a net profit of 2.838 billion yuan, up 312.26% [3]. - Zhongji Xuchuang expects to report a revenue of 23.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 122.64% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, up 138.66% [4]. Group 4: Market Misjudgments - Initial market perceptions underestimated the growth potential of optical modules due to concerns over AI training costs and competition from new entrants like DeepSeek [5][6]. - The anticipated impact of international trade restrictions on domestic optical module manufacturers has not materialized, leading to improved market expectations [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The global shipment of 400G and above optical modules is expected to reach 6.4 million units in 2023, with projections of 20.4 million in 2024 and over 31.9 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 56.5% [8]. - The penetration rate of silicon optical modules is expected to reach 50% by 2025, driven by advancements in technology and market acceptance [10].
国产光模块被“错杀”,多重叙事大反转