房地产长期处于有价无市状态，没有所谓的底部只有需求不足

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has become complex and diverse, moving away from the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high" that characterized the market two decades ago. Current discussions should focus on demand rather than just pricing dynamics. Pricing Analysis - Real estate prices vary significantly, with major cities and provincial tourism cities experiencing high prices, while most third and fourth-tier cities have prices within a normal range. For instance, a price of 6,000 yuan per square meter is considered reasonable when adjusted for inflation [1]. - The perception of high prices in smaller cities is often due to a lack of consideration for inflation over the past 20 years, making current prices appear inflated [1]. - The current issue in the market is not about pricing but rather insufficient demand, as most rural residents have already purchased homes, leaving little concern for future price increases in these areas [1]. Demand Dynamics - The demand in third and fourth-tier cities is expected to take years to recover, as current inventory levels need to be sufficiently reduced before any significant price changes occur. Until then, supply will continue to exceed demand, leading to stagnant prices [2]. - In major cities, while there are reports of price drops, these often only reflect a reduction in speculative bubbles rather than actual price declines. Properties priced above 50,000 yuan per square meter are largely considered speculative bubbles, while those below this threshold may represent true market prices [2]. - The economic downturn has led to a clearer understanding among consumers regarding housing affordability, with many unable to manage high monthly mortgage payments, thus disconnecting high-value properties from the average consumer's reality [2]. Property Sellability - Not all properties are sellable at reduced prices; older buildings without modern amenities, such as elevators, struggle to attract buyers. The current market shows a preference for properties that meet modern living standards, making older, less desirable units difficult to sell [2].