Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-18 14:21Core Viewpoint - UBS reviews the sales and product mix of major Chinese automakers, previewing second-quarter profits and comparing them with buyer expectations, suggesting that despite concerns over pricing pressures, corporate earnings should remain stable [1] Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers - New energy vehicle manufacturers, including Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng, have shown a quarter-on-quarter increase in sales and moderate improvement in product mix, with UBS expecting Li Auto's profits to grow quarter-on-quarter and NIO and Xpeng's losses to narrow [2] - NIO and Xpeng aim to achieve breakeven net profit by the fourth quarter, with UBS anticipating improved gross margins as cost controls take effect [2] - Li Auto's reduction in computing power leasing costs is expected to aid in controlling R&D expenses, with UBS believing that sales of new models are more critical than profits for these companies [2] Group 2: Traditional Automakers - UBS notes limited high-quality data on quarterly forecasts for traditional automakers but believes investor concerns about price competition are present, leading to moderate overall expectations [3] - BYD's record-high export volume, accounting for 21% of second-quarter sales, is expected to help achieve a net profit of 8,800 yuan per vehicle [3] - Great Wall Motors' high-end brands, Wei and Tank, contribute to 26% of sales, aiding in profit recovery, while Geely's complex structure complicates profit forecasts, though UBS expects earnings to be close to first-quarter levels [3] Group 3: Stock Impact - Since late May, investor sentiment has cooled due to concerns over price competition and signs of unfair competition, leading UBS to adopt a slightly more positive view on the industry [4] - UBS is optimistic about Li Auto's i8 debut at the end of July, BYD's overseas performance, and Great Wall Motors' high-end strategy, while expressing concerns about Xpeng's G7 performance amid fierce competition [4] Group 4: Li Auto (LI.0) - Li Auto delivered 111,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the L6 model accounting for 52,000 units, representing a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5% year-on-year increase [5] - UBS predicts a gross margin of 19.5% for Li Auto in the second quarter, slightly lower than the first quarter due to increased pricing pressure [6] - R&D expenses are estimated at 2.6 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 2.9 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 5.5 billion yuan, which is stricter than market consensus [6] Group 5: NIO (NIO.N) - NIO delivered 72,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the Onvo L60 model accounting for 17,000 units, resulting in a 72% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 26% year-on-year increase [7] - UBS estimates a gross margin of 12.5% for NIO, reflecting operational leverage from increased sales [8] - R&D expenses are projected at 3 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 4 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 7 billion yuan, slightly below market consensus [8] Group 6: Xpeng (XPEV.N) - Xpeng delivered 103,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the Mona M03 model accounting for 39,000 units, resulting in a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase and approximately 200% year-on-year increase [9] - UBS expects a gross margin of 12.0% for Xpeng, benefiting from improved product mix and a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase in export volume [9] - R&D expenses are estimated at 2 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 2 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 4 billion yuan, aligning with market consensus [9]