突发！豆粕期货连续拉升，油厂开机率高位运行，机构提示追涨风险｜大宗风云

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent surge in agricultural futures prices, particularly soybean meal, driven by increased downstream demand [2] - On July 18, soybean meal futures opened at 3031 CNY/ton, peaking at 3059 CNY/ton, closing at 3056 CNY/ton, marking a 1.49% increase [2] - Soybean meal futures have been on an upward trend since early 2025, influenced by rising costs and macroeconomic improvements [2][3] Group 2: Import Costs - Rising import costs for soybeans, with U.S. soybean import cost at 4616 CNY, Brazilian soybeans at 3910 CNY, and Argentine soybeans at 3707 CNY as of July 18 [3] - The increase in soybean meal prices is linked to higher import costs, particularly due to improved U.S. soybean exports and strong Brazilian soybean prices [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. soybean crushing volume adjusted upward by 1.4 million tons to 69.13 million tons due to increased demand for biodiesel [4] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 totaled 49.37 million tons, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable shift in import sources [6] - Current soybean meal inventory levels are high, with oil mills facing storage issues, leading to slower downstream purchasing despite rising prices [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The soybean meal market is expected to remain supported by strong Brazilian pricing and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations [8][9] - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could positively impact soybean exports, providing a boost to the market [5][8] - The upcoming weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions will be critical for determining future price trends [9][10]