Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-07-18 15:08Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced volatility after an initial rise, influenced by a slight uptick in the US June CPI, which adjusted market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Gold prices fluctuated significantly, with a downward trend driven by US economic data and rising bond yields, reaching a peak of $3370 before settling at $3355 per ounce [1] - Silver prices initially surged to $39 per ounce, marking a new high since September 2011, but later retreated to $38.29 per ounce [1] - Non-US currencies weakened against the dollar, with the British pound hitting a new low since May 20, and the euro experiencing a second consecutive week of decline [1] Oil Market - International oil prices declined due to renewed trade tensions, with both Brent and WTI crude recording their first drop in three weeks [2] - The market's initial fears of immediate supply disruptions from sanctions on Russia were alleviated by a 50-day grace period announced by Trump [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a historic high of over $120,000, with a market capitalization exceeding $2.3 trillion, driven by legislative support for cryptocurrency in the US [2] - The total cryptocurrency market cap surpassed $4 trillion, reflecting strong growth in the sector [2] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, maintaining a bullish long-term outlook on gold [5] - Bank of America does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates before next year [5] - UBS forecasts the euro to rise to 1.23 against the dollar by June 2026 [5] Economic Data - Moody's anticipates global economic growth to slow to just above 2% this year [6] - Citigroup sets a year-end target of 25,000 points for the Hang Seng Index, recommending an overweight position in Chinese internet, technology, and consumer sectors [6] Major Events - Trump's consideration to replace Fed Chair Powell caused significant market fluctuations, with major banks defending the Fed's independence [7] - The US CPI report indicated a rise in inflation, with the overall CPI year-on-year increasing to 2.7%, the highest since February [9] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported a slight increase in economic activity, but noted a generally pessimistic outlook [10] Trade Policies - Trump announced potential tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with initial low rates that could escalate significantly [12] - The EU plans retaliatory tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods, focusing on high-value products and digital services [13] China's Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a need to address external instability and domestic demand issues [14] AI Developments - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Agent, a new AI product capable of performing complex tasks autonomously, enhancing efficiency in various applications [24][27]