High-fructose corn syrup vs. cane sugar in foods: The cost of switching ingredients

Core Viewpoint - The potential switch from high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) to cane sugar by Coca-Cola may lead to increased costs for consumers and farmers, as cane sugar is significantly more expensive to produce and process compared to HFCS [1][3][4]. Pricing Comparison - The cost of bulk high-fructose corn syrup is approximately $0.35 per pound in 2025, a slight increase from $0.27 in 2015, while refined white sugar has risen to $1.01 from $0.61 in 2015 [1]. Industry Context - Coca-Cola's historical shift from cane sugar to HFCS in the 1980s was driven by the latter's lower cost due to corn farming subsidies and high tariffs on cane sugar [3][4]. - The U.S. produces 850 billion pounds of corn annually, making it a readily available and inexpensive source for HFCS, while only three states produce 8 billion pounds of cane sugar, with additional sources facing tariffs [6]. Economic Implications - The Corn Refiners Association (CRA) warns that eliminating HFCS could reduce corn prices by up to $0.34 per bushel, resulting in a $5.1 billion revenue loss for farms [9]. - The CRA estimates that the loss of demand for corn refining products could lead to short-term losses of $13.9 billion, with annual losses reaching between $5.2 billion and $7.5 billion, adversely affecting local economies [11]. Product Strategy - Analysts suggest that Coca-Cola may introduce a new product line featuring cane sugar rather than replacing its existing corn syrup-based products [13]. - A cane sugar variant is expected to carry a premium price due to higher production costs, and achieving price parity with current products would require significant increases in U.S. cane sugar production or imports, which is unlikely in the near term [14].