GTA 6 Delay Makes Take-Two Valuation Tough: Video Game ETF CEO Says 'Long-Only Holders Need Patience'

Core Viewpoint - Take-Two Interactive Software's stock valuation is heavily influenced by the anticipated release of "Grand Theft Auto VI," now scheduled for May 26, 2026, which has led to a significant shift in revenue forecasts and stock performance [1][2][6]. Group 1: Release Date and Market Expectations - The release of "Grand Theft Auto VI" has been officially set for May 26, 2026, moving it out of fiscal 2026 and into fiscal 2027, allowing the development team to finalize what is described as their "most ambitious title ever" [2]. - Prediction markets indicate a 68% chance of the game being released before June 2026, an 84% chance before August 2026, and a 94% chance before 2027 [3]. Group 2: Pricing Strategy - Analysts expect the game to be priced higher than typical releases, with standard editions around $80 and deluxe editions exceeding $100, reflecting the franchise's strong market position [4]. - The higher pricing strategy is not expected to impact the overall gaming sector significantly, as most publishers will continue to release games at $70 and monetize through post-launch content [5]. Group 3: Stock Valuation and Performance - The delay of "Grand Theft Auto VI" has caused Take-Two's stock to drop by 7% to 10%, translating to a $2 billion reduction in revenue forecasts for the current year [6]. - Despite the short-term challenges, sell-side targets for Take-Two's stock remain clustered around $235 to $240, anticipating a $3 billion-plus launch year in fiscal 2027 [6]. - Take-Two's stock is currently trading at $228.66, with a year-to-date increase of 25.8% in 2025, within a 52-week range of $135.24 to $245.08 [6].