Global Macro Environment - The US economy shows positive data, but inflation risks remain, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 at a slower pace [2] - China's economic recovery is weak, with limited effects from policy stimulus, facing challenges from a real estate market crisis and external tariff pressures [3] - Other countries, including the EU and emerging economies, are following the Fed's rate cuts but must balance the pressure from a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine persist [3] Vietnam Economic and Stock Market Outlook - Vietnam's economic growth is projected at 7% for 2024 and between 6.0%-6.5% for 2025, driven by trade, FDI, manufacturing, and consumption, with significant long-term potential from government reforms and infrastructure projects like the North-South high-speed railway [4] - The VN-Index has opportunities for breakthroughs amid volatility, with a positive scenario potentially pushing it above 1450 points, supported by GDP growth, an expected 20% increase in EPS, market upgrade expectations (such as FTSE potentially upgrading Vietnam to emerging market status), and easing geopolitical risks [4]
2025年投资策略报告-波动中安全投资-国泰君安证券越南