Nvidia(US:NVDA) Huan Qiu Wang·2025-07-19 02:30Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has surged, reaching a market capitalization of $4.23 trillion, marking a year-to-date increase of over 83%, but technical indicators suggest the market may be overheated [1][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Nvidia's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surpassed 80, indicating a potential overbought condition, reminiscent of a previous instance in June 2024 when the stock price subsequently fell over 20% in six weeks [1] - Market sentiment is nearing a "frenzy" edge, as indicated by analysts, raising concerns about potential corrections [1][3] Group 2: Catalysts for Recent Price Surge - The recent price increase has been fueled by the U.S. government's decision to allow Nvidia to continue exporting special AI chips (H20) to China, alleviating previous sales loss expectations of $15 billion due to prior bans [3] - Optimism surrounding AI prospects and easing trade policies have led to a continuous influx of capital into Nvidia, despite a previous dip in stock price to $86.6 due to Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" in April [3] Group 3: Analyst Perspectives and Future Outlook - Among 79 Wall Street analysts, only one has recommended selling Nvidia, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [3] - Despite Nvidia's expected price-to-earnings ratio of 34 being below its five-year average of 40, some analysts have begun to reduce their holdings due to concerns over potential cyclical volatility in the AI sector [3] - Upcoming earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, and Meta will directly impact Nvidia's performance expectations, with Nvidia's own earnings report scheduled for the end of August [3] - Strong growth in Nvidia's data center business is anticipated to continue for one to two years, suggesting that profit-taking may not be necessary at this time [3]