日本参议院选举前夕，对冲基金四个月来首次做空日元

Group 1 - Hedge funds have turned bearish on the Japanese yen for the first time in four months, driven by concerns over the ruling coalition's election prospects and potential negative impacts on Japan's fiscal outlook and economic policy stability [1] - Speculative traders currently hold approximately $1.1 billion in short yen futures and options contracts, totaling around 12,606 contracts, marking the first bearish stance since the end of March [1] - Recent polls indicate that the ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, may struggle to maintain a majority in the upcoming elections, prompting investors to reassess the investment value of the yen and Japanese government bonds [1] Group 2 - Wall Street strategists generally have a pessimistic outlook on the yen's performance post-election, with Wells Fargo's currency strategy team suggesting that a defeat for the LDP could lead to increased fiscal spending and larger budget deficits, putting pressure on long-term Japanese government bonds [2] - If the opposition party wins, the yen is expected to weaken further, potentially reaching 150 yen per dollar [2] - Analysts from TD Securities noted that previous long positions on the yen appeared excessive and fragile, predicting continued pressure on the yen in the short term [5] Group 3 - Concerns over fiscal prospects ahead of the elections and ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have exerted pressure on both Japanese bonds and the yen [6] - The sell-off in Japanese government bonds has spread to the 10-year maturity, with yields reaching their highest level since 2008, close to 1.6%, while 20-year and 30-year bond yields have hit their highest levels since 1999 [6] - The yen has declined approximately 3% in July, following a nearly 10% increase in the first half of the year due to the weakening of the dollar amid the initiation of the U.S.-China trade war [9]