金晟富：7.19黄金盘整或迎来尾声！下周聚焦关税与美联储风波

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily influenced by the weakening US dollar, geopolitical uncertainties, and mixed economic signals from the US, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Impacting Gold Prices - Gold prices have recently increased by 0.4% to $3353.25 per ounce due to a softening dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. - Positive US real estate data, including building permits and new housing starts, has reduced recession fears, providing some support for the dollar and exerting pressure on gold [2]. - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve officials' views on monetary policy have created market volatility, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others suggest maintaining high rates [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - The US June CPI data indicates signs of rising inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, impacting gold's attractiveness [3]. - The interplay of Federal Reserve policies, US economic data, and tariff uncertainties is creating a complex environment for gold prices, with potential inflation pressures enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies - Technical analysis shows gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels around $3375 and support levels at $3340-$3345 [4][6]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on boundary breakouts, with potential upward movement towards $3380 if support levels hold [4][6]. - Specific trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $3373-$3375 and buying on dips around $3340-$3345, with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk [7][8].