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九兴控股(1836.HK):25H1收入稳健 新员工效率不及预期盈利能力承压
Ge Long Hui·2025-07-19 10:41

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profitability due to slower employee efficiency improvements and the impact of tariffs, but maintains a strong order book and is expanding its customer base, leading to a strong medium to long-term outlook [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue increased by 2.9% to $444 million, with manufacturing revenue rising by 2.5% to $433 million, and shipment volume up by 4.1% to 15.4 million pairs. The average selling price decreased by 1.7% to $28.2 per pair [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of $169 million, $183 million, and $201 million for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, 9%, and 10% respectively, corresponding to a PE of 9X for 2025 and 8X for 2026 [1][2]. Production Capacity and Challenges - Production ramp-up in Indonesia and the Philippines has been slower than expected due to insufficient employee efficiency, leading to some products being produced in Vietnam, which has increased production costs [2]. - The company is accelerating the construction of its factory in Indonesia, now expected to be completed in 2026, one year earlier than initially planned, and is expanding production around its existing factory in Vietnam [2]. Customer Orders and Market Position - The company has a strong order certainty for Q4 2025 and is planning to initiate 2026 order planning in Q3. It is also progressing with new customer collaborations, including two new sports clients and one luxury client expected to be developed in 2026 [1][2]. - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer in the sports fashion footwear sector, with stable core customer orders and high product barriers, indicating strong medium to long-term certainty despite short-term challenges [2].