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思摩尔国际(06969.HK):雾化电子烟业务受益于全球监管趋严 期待HNB业务放量!
Ge Long Hui·2025-07-19 11:00

Group 1 - The company forecasts a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to be between 443 million and 541 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 21% to 35% year-on-year [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and awards, higher distribution and sales expenses due to market expansion, and a significant rise in legal service costs [1] - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payment expenses, is projected to be between 688 million and 787 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1] Group 2 - The company's vaping business benefits from the global market's compliance development, with revenue growth driven by proprietary brand and enterprise customer business [1] - In the UK, a ban on disposable e-cigarettes has caused significant market disruption, leading to a shift in demand towards reusable e-cigarette products [1] - In the US, the FDA and CBP have intensified actions against illegal e-cigarettes, seizing over 135 million USD worth of products since 2023, which is expected to support the growth of the company's proprietary brand and enterprise customer business [1] Group 3 - British American Tobacco's Glo Hilo product, utilizing infrared quartz heating technology, is set for nationwide launch in Japan after successful trials, with a retail price of approximately 25 USD [2] - The company aims to revitalize market growth in Japan, which is a key strategic market for smoke-free products, as sales of smoke-free products have surpassed traditional cigarettes [2] - The HNB business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth starting in 2025, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.337 billion, 1.912 billion, and 2.760 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +2.57%, +43.01%, and +44.35% [2]